German Government Stunned by Regional Election Setbacks

The German state elections have broader consequences than local issues.Observers see them as a reflection of the federal government’s efficiency. So, although only two of Germany’s 16 federal states vote Sunday, Sep,1. Their combined total of 5 million eligible voters represents a fraction of the country’s 61 million, the results are no less significant.

This marks the first time the far-right Alternative for Germany party has won more than a third of the vote in any state parliamentary election.For the first time in a state parliamentary election. Additionally, the coalition parties forming the Berlin-based federal government have experienced unprecedented poor outcomes in a regional election.

In the eastern regions of Saxony and Thuringia, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) garnered over twice the number of votes compared to the combined total of the three parties forming the federal coalition government: the center-left Social Democrats (SPD), the environmentally focused Greens, and the neoliberal Free Democrats (FDP). Each of these parties recorded results in the single digits. Notably, the Greens in Thuringia and the FDP in both states did not achieve the 5% threshold necessary for representation in the state parliaments.

Is Berlin’s Government Facing a Voter ‘Punishment’?

Before the elections, polls predicted voters would oust the SPD from state parliaments, but the party ultimately avoided this fate.

Four out of five German voters express dissatisfaction with the federal government’s performance, a sentiment that has solidified over time.

Infratest dimap’s monthly surveys continue to show negative ratings for Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his cabinet members.

This gives people the impression that the coalition is “mired in constant disputes and unable to take decisive action.”The government’s swift and unanimous response to the fatal knife attack in Solingen, located in western Germany, just prior to the elections did not resonate with the public.

In light of the immigration discourse during the electoral campaigns, the federal government recently unveiled more stringent migration and security measures, including an unexpected decision to deport 28 asylum-seekers with criminal records back to Afghanistan.

'Punishment' for the government in Berlin — ‘Punishment’ for the government in Berlin

The AfD perceives itself as having established a substantial support base. AfD co-leader Alice Weidel claims the recent state elections were a “historic” achievement, urging the federal government to resign.

She stated, “This serves as a reprimand for the federal government and marks the end of this coalition. The administration in Berlin must consider whether it is capable of continuing to govern. “The issue of new elections should be raised, particularly after the forthcoming election in Brandenburg, as the current situation is untenable,” a party representative suggested.

Brandenburg Becomes the Focus of National Attention

The eastern German state of Brandenburg goes to election on September 22. The AfD leads by a narrow margin, closely followed by the Social Democrats (SPD).

The SPD will likely remain calm before Election Day, as this vote is critical for their political future.

The SPD has governed Brandenburg since 1990. Lars Klingbeil emphasized the need for everyone to collaborate and increase their efforts.

Despite poor results in Thuringia and Saxony, Chancellor Scholz retains party support, with Klingbeil dismissing talks of personnel changes. The leadership of the SPD has reiterated that Scholz will guide the party into the forthcoming federal election.

Indeed, with Dietmar Woidke-the state’s premier from the last 11 years-not standing for re-election, cohesion immediately probably will decline. Speculation within the SPD may grow about Defense Minister Boris Pistorius potentially challenging Chancellor Scholz in the 2025 federal election.

Challenges for the coalition

Will the alliance of the SPD, Greens, and FDP endure until that time? The poor state election outcomes and unfavorable national polling have significantly affected their morale and confidence.

Within the respective parties, there is an increasing demand for greater visibility and a more distinct identity. “For my party, it is now essential to assert ourselves more and to clarify what can solely be accomplished with the SPD, and we will no longer permit [other parties] to take advantage of us,” stated SPD secretary Kevin Kühnert.

The Bundestag is expected to address the 2025 budget soon, highlighting areas of potential conflict.Additionally, it is uncertain whether the government will succeed in executing its recently declared stricter migration policies.

There are dissenting opinions among some members of the left factions of the SPD and Greens regarding the proposed measures to limit immigration.

The three governing parties cannot risk coalition collapse, as current polling suggests they may lose their majority in early elections.

The likely victors would be the Alternative for Germany (AfD) and the Conservative Union (CDU), along with the CSU. The Union, which constitutes the largest opposition group in the Bundestag, has consistently urged the government to resign.

Carsten Linnemann, CDU’s national general secretary, stated that the traffic light coalition of red, yellow, and green has faced repercussions.

“A party led by the chancellor achieving single-digit results in two eastern states must reflect on serving all German citizens.

The CDU/CSU plans to intensify scrutiny of the federal government while advocating for swift migration policy changes and stricter measures.

In the wake of the knife attack in Solingen, CDU chairman Friedrich Merz remarked that the country has surpassed an “overload limit.” He urged the federal government to declare a “national state of emergency” to facilitate the immediate rejection of asylum-seekers at the German border.