Forecasters Warn Developing Storm Could Threaten Hawaii

Meteorologists specializing in hurricane predictions are closely monitoring a developing tropical system in the Pacific Ocean this week. Hawaii residents are closely monitoring the forecast, especially after last year’s devastating Maui wildfire that claimed many lives.

Two East Pacific disturbances may merge tonight, leading to a large, disorganized storm with potential gradual development.

The hurricane center expects a tropical depression to develop in the coming days as the disturbance progresses west-northwestward into the Central Pacific basin on Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Just one year ago, the powerful winds generated by the remote Hurricane Dora contributed to the spread of devastating wildfires in Maui, resulting in the loss of more than 100 lives.

AccuWeather expert Alex DaSilva warns a tropical storm or hurricane near Hawaii could bring dry winds, raising wildfire risks.

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Lack of data to give definitive forecast for impacts on Hawaii

Unlike the Atlantic, much of the Pacific lacks the technology, like aircraft and drones, to closely monitor storm systems.

Data from hurricane hunters, satellites, and other techniques feed computer models to provide accurate atmospheric condition forecasts.

Lack of data can cause forecasting models to vary, with one predicting a hurricane and another showing dry conditions.

Storm Could Approach Hawaii by This Weekend

DaSilva said the disturbance will move northwest, accelerate, and approach the islands over the weekend.

According to The Diplomat news “Long-range weather models are showing a higher chance for development” southeast of Hawaii this week”.

 According to The Diplomat news “There is still a lot of uncertainty to which path it will take. Many models suggest that it will stay to our south, but Hawaii Island will see the most impacts”.

What will the storm’s name be?

If a named tropical storm forms, its name would depend on which basin it forms in: According to The Diplomat News, if it becomes more organized over the Eastern Pacific, It will be named “Hector,” if it develops over the Central Pacific then, It will be named “Hone”.

First Central Pacific storm of the season

This would become the first named storm of the Central Pacific hurricane season. Federal forecasters say the 2024 outlook calls for 1–4 tropical cyclones. An average, near-normal season sees 4 or 5 tropical cyclones, which includes tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes.